2013 Tulane Football season predictions & outlook

As we sit one week away from the official start of the 2013 Tulane Football season it is our favorite pre-season activity - prediction time.

Taking the suggestion of a friend I have decided to do something slightly different with my predictions.
I will give a pre-camp prediction on how I think things will turn out this year and then after camp is over (roughly one week before JSU game) I will re-evaluate those predictions. When the dust settles, positions are decided and additions/subtractions are made (due to a variety of reasons) we can take another look at the future and I will give new predictions.

Please feel free to leave a comment with a suggestion on other areas you may want to see a prediction on that I don't include.

Here we go:

• Things that will happen at Fall Camp: 
• expect to lose at least one starter and if it ends up being only one then we should thank the football Gods. 
• expect at least one true freshman to emerge as a starter on both offense and defense. Yes, going out on a limp limb here ain't I!
• Offense - Chris Taylor - OL
• Defense - Eric Thomas - LB
• evacuate! nothing says football season is here better than an evacuation. We are Tulane and that means expect the ball to bounce the other way, a little adversity in camp is good for the soul.

The Schedule CHALK. (I never enter a season thinking my team is equal to or worse than the year prior):

• W - 1-0 (0-0) - Jackson State 17 @ Tulane 34
• W - 2-0 (0-0) - South Alabama 24 @ Tulane 38
•  L - 2-1 (0-1) - Tulane 17 @ La Tech 40
•  L - 2-2 (0-1) - Tulane 10 @ Syracuse 23
•  L - 2-3 (0-1) - Tulane 24 @ ULM 45
• W - 3-3 (1-1) - North Texas 21 @ Tulane 38
•  L - 3-4 (1-2) - ECU 34 @ Tulane 17
•  L - 3-5 (1-3) - Tulsa 45 @ Tulane 27
• W - 4-5 (2-3) - Tulane 31 @ FAU 20
• W - 5-5 (3-3) - Tulane 34 @ UTSA 31
• W - 6-5 (4-3) - UTEP - 35 @ Tulane 45
•  L - 6-6 (4-4) - Tulane 27 @ Rice 38
• The Schedule: Forget chalk! Things never go the way they look like they should go on paper.
• W - 1-0 (0-0) - Jackson State 24 @ Tulane 34
•  L - 1-1 (0-0) - South Alabama 33 @ Tulane 27
•  L - 1-2 (0-1) - Tulane 17 @ La Tech 40
• W - 2-2 (0-1) - Tulane 27 @ Syracuse 23
•  L - 2-3 (0-1) - Tulane 30 @ ULM 45
• W - 3-3 (1-1) - North Texas 21 @ Tulane 45
•  L - 3-4 (1-2) - ECU 28 @ Tulane 24
•  L - 3-5 (1-3) - Tulsa 45 @ Tulane 31
• W - 4-5 (2-3) - Tulane 24 @ FAU 20
• W - 5-5 (3-3) - Tulane 31 @ UTSA 27
• W - 6-5 (4-3) - UTEP - 17 @ Tulane 45
• W - 7-5 (5-3) - Tulane 38 @ Rice 34

The toughest part of this schedule to is not the early three game road stretch vs very good teams. It is the fact that we play FAU and UTSA on the road and we are a program that has not won many road games recently, especially conference road games. Either way you slice it I think we enter the final four games at 3-5. Those two games are in this case the most important games of the season. Those are about as winnable as you can get at the end of the season on the road. You must go 2-0 right there because Rice is supposed to be really good this year. The final four games of the season will essentially make or break the year. I have gone over the schedule a hundred times and even in my wildest moments I cannot see this team finishing worse than 5-7 or being better than 7-5. I am over confident in what I think will be the record after eight games, it is the last four games that having me nervous because on paper it seems just a little too easy and nothing comes that easy. The fact that I even picked Rice to beat us makes me want to kick my own ass, help myself up and then kick it some more. In my predictions above I went with the better of the two possible outcomes and I don't think you expected anything less from a fan that lives every moment as a glass half full feeling about Tulane Football. It is much easier in my opinion to pick us to win 2-4 games than it is to stick your neck out and pick more than that.

• In season & post season happenings
• You didn't see that coming moment of the year - losing to South Alabama but beating Cuse
• Most valuable offensive player of the year - Orleans Darkwa
• Most valuable defensive player of the year - Julius Warmsley
• Most valuable offensive newcomer of the year - Kedrick Banks
• Most valuable defensive newcomer of the year - Eric Thomas
• Special teams player of the year - Sherman Badie
• 12th man of the year offense (impact by non projected starter) - Devon Breaux
• 12th man of the year defense (impact by non projected starter) - Jordan Sullen
• What I would not be shocked to see - Tanner Lee coming in due to injuries (Montana and/or Powell) and leading us to bowl eligibility.
• In order for Tulane football to have a complete shift in public perception & culture change these things need to happen
• Six wins +
• Nick Montana becomes the hands down best QB on this team and plays exceptionally well
• Darion Monroe earns the leadership position on defense. At the top in tackles, interceptions and is everywhere on the field.
• Chris Davenport must be a hands down star player. He cannot simply be an impact player on the defensive line. He must be dominant.
• If those things happen, Tulane will
• land the commitment of Leonard Fournette, the nations #1 overall recruit for 2014.
• land at minimum two other top tier 4-5 star prospects in the country. 
• I think we land a top WR once they realize offense is legit and we have the best WR coach in the country. Guesses in no order - Malachi Dupre, Trey Quinn, Cameron Sims, Josh Malone or Corey McBride.
• the other one being one of these: DL Gerald Willis, DL Garrald McDowell, LB Kenny Young or DB Jermaine Roberts.
• I also think if this happens you see 2-3 other highly wanted prospects flip to Tulane. I say all of this because I am fairly confident, no - extremely confident that if we can just win some damn games with this staff that the flood gates will open for this program. I think the above can happen in recruiting because not only the winning but the names of the guys I listed would be highly popular names that could catapult the popularity of the program. It is not the only way to get where we should be but this would be the perfect storm to allow this to happen in recruiting.
• Lastly, if all of this happens I can see Warren Easton WR Tyron Johnson (currently the #2 ranked player in Louisiana for 2015), John Curtis DB Hunter Dale (currently the #28 ranked player in Louisiana for 2015) and Destrehan WR Alfred Smith (currently the #40 ranked player in Louisiana for 2015) committing to Tulane early in the process, joining RB Kendall Bussey Jr (currently the #36 ranked player in Louisiana for 2015) of Newman spearheading the that class.

That is all I have for now. Knowing myself I might add 20 things to this post before camp even begins. 

oh and a little lagniappe prediction

• In what conference will Tulane be playing in 5 years from now
• Not in the AAC but until then, just win baby.

Stay tuned.......